CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-07-19T02:00:58Z
## Message ID: 20230719-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2023-07-19T10:11Z and 2023-07-20T03:40Z (average arrival 2023-07-19T18:08Z) for 89% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-07-19T12:28Z and 2023-07-20T06:59Z (average arrival 2023-07-19T20:40Z) for 93% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 70% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:

This CME (2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Parker Solar Probe at 2023-07-19T00:08Z and OSIRIS-REx at 2023-07-20T04:14Z (plus/minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230718-AL-012).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-07-18_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033/Detailed_results_20230718_014800_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA033.txt
###


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